If you follow us on StockTwits or Twitter you’ve seen all of these ideas but we wanted to put it all together in one succinct post:

Shortest time-frame we follow for trend is the 60min and when there is a smooth ascending/descending 9/20EMA on that time-frame we pay attention.

SMH 5 sessions under 60min/20ema — looking to see if this can break tomorrow — a close over 97.5-98 would do the trick. 

TNX exact opposite — 6 sessions trending perfectly up — would like this to fail.

Intermediate time-frame — we’ve been talking about $SPY 270 for months– first as support, now as resistance.  Chart explains it all — we have horizontal resistance, weekly 20sma, and trend-line.   If bulls really want to get going, they need to get price over this on closing basis.   Note also the hold on the 256 weekly (plug here for our newsletter that called for that bottom — was a strategy to look for overshoot of 200sma daily into that weekly SMA).

We’ve mentioned this week how we’re looking for a reversal on SMH 50sma weekly — held today but needs to get some distance in next two sessions.  First time in 2 yrs it’s been tested so let’s see if bulls come out to defend it.

And finally long term time frame:   we have been talking about the 2015/2018 market now for weeks.  We feel like we are not in a bear market, and not going to make new highs but carving out a range just like in 2015.  We’ve probably seen the top of the range for now, but not sure we’ve seen the bottom yet.

So what to do?   Trade the range by shortening time-frame. In a bull market you can often get away with chasing without having your fingers chopped off — in range bound markets you will have no digits left within weeks.   Don’t be that guy, don’t be a silly carrot.  As long as we’re range bound, quick trades, very defined risk, and whatever you do, don’t chase.